A DEAL AT LAST?

Courtesy of nytimes

Naturally, like many Kenyans, I feel relieved that the Annan deal has been signed but until it is sealed and delivered through a constitutional amendment as a first step towards peace, justice and reconciliation, I am inclined to take a wait and see attitude.

HAVE THE ANNAN TALKS COLLAPSED?

The reason there is negotiation or mediation to resolve the current political crisis is because the constitution and the present institutions have failed us. To adopt a purely legalistic stance, that all negotiation must take place within the confines of the current constitution is to negotiate without negotiating. As I have always argued in this blog, the current crisis facing Kenya is not a legal problem but a political one. Once a political settlement of all issues is reached, the necessary legal instruments including the constitution can be enacted and given legal force. What we must not do or what we must avoid is use the law or place legal impediments in seeking solutions.

I think Kenya has reached its constitutional moment where parties must really engage on the fundamental issues of what constitutes the Kenyan state.

STRATEGY?

I got this forwarded to me in my email. Interesting stuff. Read on .........

Strategy for Peace and Combating Misinformation in Kenya

after the December 27, 2007 Elections

The BBCs and CNNs of this world still continue to portray an ODM side of the story and the unfortunate collateral damage as demonstrators bite the bullet, literally!

Every report of the events in Kenya bears the implications that Kibaki is in office illegally. The message has been drilled subtly into the international community and now the peacemaker is a villain. The demonstrator-looters march crying foul that Kibaki stole the elections. The very well planned genocide of non-Kalenjin from Rift Valley and non-Luos from Kisumu has been lost as an ODM strategy and now they shout louder than everybody else, shouting all to way to the leading international media. It’s another juicy “African” story. The fact that ODM supporters killed security officials in Homa Bay just before the elections and PNU monitors were barred from most of ODM strongholds are lost stories. Even the government and Kibaki himself don’t say it loud or often enough. The blatant vote rigging by ODM with 95%, 101%, 102% and even 120% voter turn out in ODM strongholds have been buried. Yet they all repeat over and over again that Kibaki stole the election. Victorious stories of the get out the vote in Meru and in Tharaka-Nithi all in support of Kibaki garnering a “mere” 75% turnout are lost stories. The overwhelming and unprecedented voter turn-out in voter shy central and Nairobi are all lost causes, lost for Kibaki and his supporters. Going by the world press, one would think Kibaki got 3% of the vote and declared himself winner.

“President Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner of the 27 December poll, but the results were rejected by the opposition and called into question by international observers”- goes the headlines by BBC and CNN and the myriad of print press all over the globe. That followed by ODM supporters and Sir Clay commentaries, as if he were an ECK official.

The PNU and Kenya Government response to the whole electioneering saga is greatly wanting. Save for the most eloquent and highly candid debates by Martha Karua on BBC on a couple of occasions, the rest has been below per. Where is the panel of no-nonsense PNU strategists? Why don’t we see the forward looking committees comprised (NOT of friends) but of high powered business and political strategists - the best money can buy or goodwill can accord? Why not borrow from the same Dick Morris notes and use them to show the truth; turn the tables over on the opponent.

The chaos in our beloved country and the tarnished name comes from a laissez–faire attitude ... (Laissez-Faire being in the words of the Marian-Webster 1: a doctrine opposing governmental interference in economic affairs beyond the minimum necessary for the maintenance of peace and property rights 2: a philosophy or practice characterized by a usually deliberate abstention from direction or interference especially with individual freedom of choice and action). In other words, hands free attitude.

Case in point, the very failure to take action even with insurmountable intelligence on what was going to happen after the elections, and lo and behold, it happened!!!!!!! Government is made to play catch up and damage control while the adversary shapes the agenda and the media dances to the ODM’s tune.

While the action to use maximum and deadly force by police is necessary at this time to stop the riots, looting and "peace marches", the war is not being won on the streets but in the boardrooms of political strategies. The ability to execute those strategies coupled with a media savvy relations team is the winning formula. Let’s say that statement again. The ability to execute those strategies coupled with a media savvy relations team is the winning formula. Emphasis on winning formula.

Let’s look at the facts:

1. Fact: PNU has evidence of MASSIVE rigging in ODM strong holds.

2. Fact: Government and PNU have the state intelligence machinery at their fingertips.

3. Fact: PNU is disorganized without a unitary and command structure like the one built by ODM (right under their watch in the last one-year or so, while the Kibaki apologist kept saying Raila is unelectable. No lessons learnt from the referendum defeat in 2005! What a catastrophe!).

4. Fact: Government and PNU by extension have evidence of the Muslim MOU plus the ODM Campaign Strategy documents. There is evidence of where the opposition campaign was headed and actually what it was going to do. There is evidence that ALL strategies were executed to the letter.

5. Fact: Media campaign filled with lies and misinformation has been spread as part of the ODM strategy and pages borrowed from the Dick Morris action notes including the Ukraine presidential outcome.

DISAPPOINTING FACTS

1. Disappointing Fact - Government Playing Catch-up to ODM

With all the above and more, the Government is resulting to paid advertisements in a bid to play catch-up, in the American way of saying "too little too late...."? Even Mugabe manages to shape his opposition agenda and they play catch up. Kibaki and the Government should be setting the agenda, not the ODM.

2. Disappointing Fact – Little Kibaki visits and invisibility

At a time like this, we expect the President to be seen in the violence hit areas with the media in tow portraying the PNU and Government side of the story, paid supplements should be annexes to the lead stories of the President taking charge. Rudy Giuliani (then New York Mayor) and the 9-11 aftermaths - he endeared himself by simply walking around doing nothing but looking busy and concerned, but with the press on tow. He became a national hero. Kibaki is behaving like George Bush after Hurricane Katrina, no word, no government action for days on end. Even then Bush came out in force and visited New Orleans and Mississippi EVERY week promising deliverable goodies and showing compassion and concern. It doesn’t matter those promises were DOA (Dead on Arrival). It all boils down to Perception! Kibaki NEEDS to share the pain and anguish of the mourning, displaced and disoriented by ODM actions, and show compassion publicly. His recent attempt in Northern Rift was a disaster.

3. Disappointing Fact – The Perception Factor

Politics is not just about being RIGHT and JUST. Politics is not about preaching and delivering on the economic magic as Kibaki has done. It’s about PERCEPTION. The PNU battle now is being lost on the public arena of PERCEPTION!!! Simple and pure.

4. Disappointing Fact – Lack of Strong Rebuttals

Even the un-decided voter and the neutral see the ODM friendly media that paints Kibaki as a vote thief and unconcerned cause he apparently does not connect with the common Mwananchi. With an attitude like that, who can blame the un-informed from forming their opinions from the media...an ODM friendly media at that. We need to see strong and immediate rejoinders by the Kibaki operatives. Don’t just leave it to Dr. Alfred Mutua on Thursday mornings alone. It should a multi-prong approach without top officials contradicting each other, one voice conveys unity of purpose. Learn from the pentagon.

ACTION POINTS

1. Action Point - Truth Prevalence or Lack thereof

PNU and Kenya Government need to rise up NOW! If they can’t find any in their midst, hire the worlds top guns in the field of public propaganda and media savvy-ness. Media Perception needs to be TOP of everything. Get the truth out in all the media and those who refuse to carry the story, pay for the adverts! That should be done in ALL the media outlets, with intensity especially in the neutral and ODM areas. The Goal is to inject doubt on the ODM victory in preparation of the TRUTH coming out. Insist on results from the PNU media strategy think-tank. They are being paid for results.

2. Action Point – Publicly Challenge ODM

Rather than just pay for Adverts seeking the truth and challenging Raila and ODM, these are the very exact questions Kibaki; yes the President himself. And he needs personally ask those questions on national TV and Radio. He needs to keep saying the same things over and over in English (Yes, English, his Kiswahili awful). Arrange for well publicized press conferences with question and answer sessions....in English. The man is extremely eloquent and needs nobody to write speeches for him, as long as he does them in English. Others around him can do the Kiswahili versions on his behalf. Then let him mention and challenge Raila and Ruto by name. Yes challenge them personally and put them on the defense. Other PNU and PNU friendly officials go after their counterparts in ODM. Kibaki takes the challenging lead role and others follow. Let Kalonzo talk peace and show dictatorial tendencies of the entire ODM leadership and hence his jumping ship with ODM-K. Make public tours and repeat the same challenges over and over.

3. Action Point - ODM Rigged Big time

Get folks in ALL suspicious ODM areas where the vote was stolen in favor of ODM to file petitions in court. Prevail on the courts to move with speed and urgency to nullify the elections if the voters are indeed dead or could not have voted. This is a public safety issue and public security. Give it top priority. Hire more Judges if necessary to handle other cases while the more respected and experienced judges handle the election petitions. This is part of the negotiation ODM is pretending to ask for - speedy resolution of election cases.

4. Action Point - Preaching Peace

Get ALL religious leaders and community leaders preach UNITY like NEVER before. For example, get popular pop stars, local and international to participate in peace rallies. So what the government pays for them directly or otherwise. It’s about endearing the masses for the sake of peace. Get the Muslim leaders to condemn violence. Islam is a peaceful and compassionate religion, not the radical fundamentalism painted by the west. The government should embrace and echo that fact over and over. Have interdenominational prayers by all major religions. Condemn ODM style violence and senseless loss of life. Use Burnt Forrest as an example - always.

5. Action Point - Demonize Majimbo

Make MAJIMBO synonymous with VIOLENCE and discrimination and an excuse for wanton destruction of life and property. Mount similar campaigns like those by ODM and condemn violence and insist on peace and amicable resolution of disputes in courts. Get all the top-guns to go for peace and ONE nation, One Country under the rule of law NOT lawless disputes on the streets as rallying points. Always mention Majimbo on the same sentence with Raila, Ruto and Chaos and loss of life. Show that it is a hate campaign designed to bring chaos. Repeat the church burning and tossing of the 3yr old as what Majimbo means. We are all brothers in one family called Kenya. Show how Kibaki has been all-inclusive president but was railroaded by a disgruntled minority after the referendum to snatch power illegally. Drum it in, over and over.

6. Action Point- Act on Corruption

Get all those corruption cases on the likes of Ruto, Mudavadi and Murungaru on fast track. Show that ODM is a worthy opponent with good points but those good points are being tarnished by corrupted individuals. Name them by pointing to corruption cases. Make them pay for the corruption. Please the West that cries for corruption cases and jail terms. Kosgey and Ruto should be first closely followed by other dirty individuals even in Kibaki camp. The country is much more important than a few rotten but friendly eggs. The point is to be seen to be taking action on corruption…remember the perception factor?

7. Action Point - Act on Violence Masterminds

With the Intelligence on hand, prosecute RUTO, Alexanda Sitienei and accomplices on RV clashes. Damage has been done in RV so, no worse could happen with the Kalejin vote. Get others on incitement charges. Make tribal clashes look REALLY BAD AND BARBARIC. Let everyone frown on the primitive nature associated with it in this day and age. Several people must face the law and indeed long jail terms, really long. They should be highly publicized cases.

8. Action Point - Public Thoroughfare

Make blocking public roads look so bad and make bandits blocking such roads as economic saboteurs and potential murderers and robbers. They are basically criminals up to no good. The motive for such closures is always to cause trouble, rob, maim and even kill in the mayhem. Execute shoot to kill orders for blocking roads. Move with speed. (Try blocking I-95 in the US with barricades and see what will happen, human rights will be forgotten!)

9. Action Point - Increase the Police Force

It’s a known fact that in Kenya, the police and armed forces in general are seriously outnumbered per capita (to the general public) going by world standards. Hire extensively and fast track police training to maintain peace. Have local policing to maintain peace and above all avoid local thuggery. Borrow a leave from the extremely functional Tanzanian policing system: Security is everyone’s concern; national police is a supplement to help the locals as they maintain and manage peace, not the other way round as it is in Kenya.

10. Action Point - International Mediation

Invite International mediators and show the facts and especially as they favor the government side. If for instance President John Kafour was railroaded with un-orthodox documents out of character and disingenuous procedures, let the government have President Kafour talk about it to the world media. Let the Kenya public hear it over and over again. Have public debates on it. Always focus and shape the public debate in PNU favor. Never play catch up to the opposition. Senior government officials participating in such talks should give a public report as much and as often as necessary. You know the opposition will rush with biased information, act to beat them in the press game.

11. Action Point - Look to the future

With VP Kalonzo secure on the government side, let him take the lead in the Peace initiatives with the President taking a commanding role and being publicly visible. Have an internal move to put ODM-Kenya and PNU friendly parties into one. This becomes a HUGE advantage to Kalonzo who should be preparing for the 2012 Presidential elections. Get the Coast and Western Provinces fully behind the new unity party, whatever its name. DO NOT RELENT on the Media and wooing the youth in the new-Kalonzo unity initiative. Always give a forward looking, confident, inspiring and highly optimistic future with the young fully incorporated.

12. Action Point – Keep Central Out of the limelight

Central and GEMA tribes, the so-called Mount Kenya Mafia are Kenya’s favorite punching bags in the political arena. Keep the GEMA group in crucial supportive roles behind the scenes. Kamba and other non-GEMA tribes to be seen leading the imitative but not prominent in its formation. Have GEMA 100% behind Kalonzo with Western Kenya, Coast, N. Eastern and Rift Valley prominent in the new unity outfit. With such Strong unity and a corruption free progressive government, ODM will be struggling. Kalonzo should take that lead with public blessings of the president. With KANU left as a skeleton, a single strong united party, extremely disciplined should be the force required to confront ODM in the coming and inevitable battles in parliament and public Perception.

13. Action Point – The Raila Factor

Get the public talking about loss of life in the abortive 1982-coup attempt and the Dec 27, 2007 election aftermath. Connect the dots with public utterances on Raila to mean disgruntled, willing to kill and circumvent the law for leadership sake. The ODM adherents went with the winning propaganda party that looked like it would win with GEMA as the poster boys of ridicule, and it worked. Never relent on the violence and Raila’s desire to be president whatever the cost, including loss of life. Do whatever it takes to turn tables around for all to embrace each and all, irrespective of tribe. It can be done!

14. Action Point – The Youth Factor

The Youth must be incorporated in this new unity initiative. It needs to be fashioned in such a way to look like it is the Youths initiative, progressive, non-tribal and chic! If a young person has to be progressive and forward looking then one has to be made to be spearheading the new initiative that truly condemns and shuns violence and dismiss it. Strengthen the Women and Youth Development funds. Give credit to the Government.

15. Action Point – The Western World Motive

Insist on the motive for the Western government to ridicule and point a finger at Kibaki. Show publicly with convincing figures and graphs what the West lost in terms of no-bid government contracts with business moving to China. Show how they refused to support Kibaki after the contracts were cancelled. Show high tax collection and how it has been put to excellent use. Show budget supported by 95% local revenue. Show development was across the land before the violence. Show pictures of before and after. Show the West motive is to subjugate and domineer the poor countries and Kibaki managed to break free. Breaking free meant that the rest of the Poor countries were being shown the way forward by Kenya, and that the West can’t afford that. Show the WTO policies and how Eastern facing by Kibaki (Read China) is bad for the West and Great for Kenya and poor nations. Bring the contradictions of Raila courting Muslims by day and the West by night.

All the actions should be thoughtfully timed with the public debate always insisting on peace and progress. Encourage others to acknowledge the Kibaki splendid record. YOUTH MUST of necessity, be at the core of the all these initiatives. After all, the future of the country (and indeed the kingdom of God) belongs to such as these young… Actually work has been cut for PNU side: just use the now infamous ODM Poll Strategy document only this time for positive outcome. Use similar SWOT analysis and above all, have the outcome ACTED upon. Swing this thing around using their weapon, clearly thought out action plans with specific goals and objectives with action-oriented operatives.

This is serious business to be executed corporate style. No roadside or broadside statement declarations. No statement to be issued unless approved by the core think-tank. It’s a high stakes game by very senior management professionals.